Mulberry Wealth Securities Reports on U.S. Dollar’s Bull Run - What Investors Should Know

At Mulberry Wealth Securities, our Advisory team has been closely tracking significant shifts in the global currency market — and one trend stands out: the steep decline in the U.S. dollar. In this post, we dive into the key take-aways and what they mean for investors and wealth portfolios alike.

A sharp drop in the U.S. dollar

Our Advisory team at Mulberry Wealth Securities estimates that the U.S. dollar has fallen by approximately 11 % in the first half of 2025 — the largest six-month decline since 1973. This decline represents the end of a 15-year bull run for the dollar, during which the greenback appreciated by around 40 % from 2010 to 2024. 

Despite a modest rebound in July of about 3.2 %, our team believes the downward pressures are far from over. 

What’s driving this decline?

According to the Mulberry Wealth Securities Advisory team, several pivotal factors are converging:

• Interest rate convergence: As interest rate differentials between the U.S. and other developed economies narrow, the dollar loses one of its traditional supports. 
• Slowing U.S. growth expectations: With analysts projecting lower growth in the U.S., the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets is under pressure. 
• Foreign investor hedging flows: International holders of U.S. assets are increasingly hedging currency risk, which translates into selling the dollar — adding further downward momentum. 

Mr. Richard Carver, CFO of Mulberry Wealth Securities, explains:

“Our analysis shows that what began as a cyclical adjustment is evolving into a structural recalibration of currency markets. The dollar may still face meaningful headwinds through 2026.”

What this means for investors

For clients of Mulberry Wealth Securities, the implications are broad and noteworthy. Here are a few ways to think about them:

• International exposure becomes more attractive: With the U.S. dollar losing ground, assets in currencies such as the euro, yen or AUD may offer better relative value – especially for portfolios denominated in AUD.
• U.S. exporters may benefit: A weaker dollar boosts the competitiveness of U.S. multinational companies, potentially favouring their earnings in global markets. 
• Hedging currency risk is critical: Our Advisory team stresses that clients with overseas exposures need to revisit how currency volatility is managed in their portfolios.
• Diversification becomes key: As currency risk becomes a larger part of the return equation, single-currency bias can increase portfolio vulnerability.

Risks and caveats

While the outlook for the dollar may look challenging, Mulberry Wealth Securities’s Advisory team also flags important caveats:

• The timing of rate cuts remains uncertain: If the Federal Reserve delays cuts or inflation resurges, the dollar could stabilise or even strengthen temporarily.
• Global shocks could change the story: Geopolitical or economic events (e.g., new trade tariffs, geopolitical conflicts) could rapidly reverse currency flows.
• Not all assets benefit equally: Some U.S. companies with domestic-only revenue may not gain from a weaker dollar, so sector selection remains important.

Mr. Richard Carver adds:

“In currency markets, the tailwinds of one year can become the headwinds of the next. Our approach at Mulberry Wealth Securities emphasises flexibility and scenario planning — not blind conviction.”

The strategic take-out for you

If you’re working with Mulberry Wealth Securities, here are three things to discuss with your advisor:

1. Implement active currency reviews – Assess the impact of a weaker dollar on your portfolio and whether hedging or currency diversification aligns with your goals.
2. Look at global growth opportunities – With the dollar under pressure, non-U.S. equities and assets may present enhanced returns on a relative basis.
3. Embed currency risk in wealth planning – For investors aged 35 and up, thinking about retirement savings and fixed income, the currency dimension is increasingly material to long-term outcomes.

At Mulberry Wealth Securities, our aim is to help clients navigate these changing macro-conditions with confidence. The weakening U.S. dollar is a significant theme — one we believe will shape global investment flows for years to come. If you’d like to dig deeper into how this might affect your portfolio or wealth plan, our Advisory team is ready to assist.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.